Mankind is entering a golden age….
About 6 million years ago the ancestors of Chimpanzees and the ancestors of humans split from each other. The Chimpanzee like creature and its descendants start to make and use of more complex tools. These descendants, over the next 6 million years or so, build more complex tools, develop language, and learn to control fire. The modern human evolved from descendants of this creature about 200,000 years ago. Humans have been hunter gatherers for almost all their existence. The hunter gatherers develop, religion, music, more sophisticated tools, hooks, sowing and even art. Humanities First “Great Leap” starts about 6 million years ago. Our ancestors expand from Africa, during this period and eventually come to populate a large portion of the earth. The human population during this period greatly increases.
About 12000 years we see the beginnings of the Agricultural Revolution in the Old World and about 4000 years ago the Agricultural Revolution occurs in the New World. This is a technical revolution in which we start growing crops to feed ourselves. Humans domesticate animals for food and to help with farming. The more food created allows the population to grow. Farming sees a large portion of the population work to produce food, however it also frees up a smaller portion of the population for different jobs such as skilled tradesmen, bureaucrats, teachers and a priestly class. It is during this time that we see the invention and use of writing. We see complex housing and buildings being built. We see cities and large states and eventually even empires. Religion becomes more complex, as does music and other forms of arts. The Agricultural Revolution again allows for a great expansion of the human population. An area of land that would formerly only support several hunter and gatherers can now support hundreds of farmers, bureaucrats, priests, and artisans. We also see a lot of new problems. With greater human density and greater proximity to domesticated animals we see more deadly disease and the technology of this period is less than adequate in developing medical solutions. The technology of the Agricultural Revolution only gives mankind modest means to deal with these diseases. Mankind becomes better at warfare due to the technology developments of steel and other metals. This leads to more deadly forms of warfare and more suffering. This period also sees a large an expansion in slavery and the suffering and hardship that this entails.
The Third “Great Leap” began in England around 1760 AD, so about 260 years ago. This is the industrial revolution. This revolution starts with the building of clothing factories in England. It comes to encompass very quickly far more. We see scientific innovations that began with small scientific groups in England and soon after we see scientific advances made at universities. Universities that are originally created to train priests and teach religion move into other areas of learning and development including scientific development. Scientific development and machine development lead to much increased food production. This scientific development allows Mankind to produce cures, treatments and vaccines to many of the diseases that had been devastating humanity on a large scale during the agricultural revolution.
So where are we now? Are we at some special point in history? Are we at the beginning of some Fourth “Great Leap” in humanity? There is a tendency to think that we are living in special time. To believe that we are at the beginning of something new. The answer would be we are not at some special time. And we are not at the beginning of something new. We are in fact at the beginning stages of the Industrial Revolution. We are only approximately 260 years into the Industrial Revolution. And this is good news because I do not think that we have come anywhere close to ringing out the full potential of the Industrial Revolution. Over the last 260 years the industrial revolution has brought humanity, better healthier, longer lives, more food and more comfort. And I think these trends will continue. I think we are only at the beginning. The developments in food production, medicine, automation, transportation, computers and other technologies have just begun and this is very good news. More recently we have seen social movements which have led to the end of slavery and greater equality with regards to persecuted groups and castes.
A critic might argue that that the Industrial Revolution has come with its very own plagues and problems. I would agree but then counter with the point that we have and will be able to address these problems primarily through the technology development that has continued for the last 260 years and will continue for hundreds and even thousands of years. This is not to say that “new” problems such as, wealth inequality, obesity and global warming will not be a challenge. But I think these are challenges that Mankind is addressing and because of always improving technology will eventually solve.
There is one major change that is occurring right now. The earth’s population which has grown in leaps and bounds since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution is slowing down and will soon start decline. I would argue that in the next 50 years or so we will see the earth’s population stop growing and in fact slightly decline. The declining population is because of people choosing to have less children. This is something that is occurring in almost every country in the world. And this is novel in Mankind’s history. We have in the past seen populations decline but this has been because of plagues, wars and famines not because of population control.
Technology and therefore economic growth will continue as our population growth first levels off and then somewhat declines. The combination of economic growth and a leveling off in the population will result in even better, healthier, richer lives for humans. We are nowhere near a Fourth “Great Leap” but we are entering a golden age that will last for a long time…